By Mike Kruzman / news@whmi.com


A chief economist says there are still a lot of unknowns with how the economy will look in the near future.

The Livingston County Chamber Alliance hosted an economic forecast webinar, Tuesday, with Dr. Robert Dye. Dye is the President and Chief Economist for Comerica Bank. Dye said he expects that the Biden administration will be a very different one for both the nation and Michigan. With Biden and Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer wanting an additional $1.9-trillion stimulus, Dye is expecting there to be another influx of money to businesses. He was also optimistic about interest rates staying low until 2023 and was encouraged by the strong housing market we are currently in.

Dye was asked about the long term effects of printing trillions and adding to the national debt. He said it’s a complicated issue and offered a simplified way to think about it. He said, as economists they see it as “we’ve got the fire right in front of us. We need to put it out in terms of the recession and coronavirus. We need to get the money out to the economy now and worry about getting more water later. We use whatever we need and worry about the debt later.”

The faster the economy improves, the more quickly Dye says we’ll have to worry about the debt. With millions inversely impacted by the virus and put out of work through no fault of their own, Dye says we have to help them. But at the same time he cautions about going wild with free money, and says unfortunately, the only way to know who is right is through hindsight.

He believes a best case scenario for the economy is that the vaccine is utilized and effective, not just locally, but globally as well. When we can start to forget about COVID we will see pent up demand for business and may enter a roaring economy. A worst case scenario sees a stumbling with vaccine distribution or an ineffectiveness that causes another surge, forcing states to tighten up again, and we enter a back-to-back recession. In short, Dye says, like everything, the biggest upsides and downsides all relate to coronavirus.