Nik Rajkovic / news@whmi.com

Michigan Retailers Association reports that January 2025’s Retail Index rose to 62.2, in comparison to December’s 58.2 on the 100-point Retail Index. January 2025 marks the second month in a row of increasing activity.

According to MRA, the 100-point Index provides a snapshot of the state’s overall retail industry. Index values above 50 generally indicate positive activity, with higher numbers indicating stronger activity. The seasonally-adjusted performance Index is conducted by Michigan Retailers Association in cooperation with the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago’s Detroit branch.

The seasonally-adjusted Index reflects how retail sales compare to an average January, which typically holds a post-holiday season sales decline. Thirty-nine percent of retailers noted an increase in January sales over December, 49% of Michigan retailers surveyed reported a sales decrease, and 13% reported no change.

“January can be a slower month for retail; consumers cut back on shopping after the holidays. Having more than a third of retailers report an increase in sales in January is a great sign of a strong year for retail in Michigan,” said William J. Hallan, President and CEO of the Michigan Retailers Association.

"Recent years’ January Index numbers have been notably lower, with January 2024 at 48.0 and January 2023 at 53.8. This comparison reinforces the feelings of optimism that this year’s increase brings," according to a release.

When asked to predict their sales outlook for February through April, 69% of retailers predicted their sales will continue to rise, 19% said they expect their sales to decline, and 12% anticipate no change. That results in an Index rating of 66.4, a dip from December’s three-month prediction of 72.5, but still a continued positive indication for a strong first-quarter in 2025.

“The three-month outlook in January’s Retail Index comes in a few points higher than January scores in years past,” Hallan shared. “For about a year now, we’ve seen great consistency in the 3-month outlook. December’s high outlook Index followed eleven months of outlook scores that remained in the 62-69 point range. Despite legislative changes, seasonal ebbs and flows, and other economic challenges, retailers have remained optimistic that the next three months will be better than the last.”

Reflecting on 2024 annual numbers, 48% of retailers noted an increase in sales, 47% saw a decrease, and 5% noted no change. When asked about their overall sales outlook for the current year, 58% of retailers said they expect 2025 sales to exceed 2024 sales.

Michigan’s January 2025 unemployment rate has yet to be reported. In December 2024 the unemployment rate was announced preliminarily at 5.0% in Michigan. Last January, the state’s unemployment rate came in at 4.0%. The national unemployment rate in January fell to 4.0% over December’s 4.1%. Last year, the national unemployment rate was 3.7%.