(LONDON) -- Increasingly squeezed by allies and enemies alike, Ukraine's armed forces are still setting records in their stubborn defense against Russia's 3-year-old invasion, which -- if President Donald Trump's peace talks bear fruit -- may soon see a partial ceasefire.
Month after month, Ukraine has increased the size and scope of its drone assaults within Russia. The high watermark this month came on March 10 as Kyiv launched at least 343 drones into Russia -- according to the Defense Ministry in Moscow -- representing Kyiv's largest ever such attack. More than 90 drones were shot down over Moscow, the capital's mayor describing the assault as "massive."
The timing was pointed, coming hours before American and Ukrainian officials gathered in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, for ceasefire talks.
While straining to prove to the White House they were ready to discuss peace with Moscow, the Ukrainians were also exhibiting their ever-evolving capability to wage war deep inside Russia.
"We keep developing a lot of different types of long-range deep strikes," Yehor Cherniv -- a member of the Ukrainian Parliament and the chairman of his country's delegation to the NATO Parliamentary Assembly -- told ABC News.
"Our capacity is growing to destroy the capacity of Russia to continue this war," he added.
Ukraine's strikes against Russian critical infrastructure, energy facilities, military-industrial targets and military bases have mirrored Moscow's own long-range campaign against Ukraine. Cross-border barrages in both directions have grown in size and complexity throughout the full-scale war.
Ukrainian short-range drones are harrying Russian forces on the devastated battlefields while long-range strike craft hit targets closer to home. Kyiv this month even claimed the first successful use of its domestically produced Neptune cruise missile, with a range of 600 miles.
Since the opening of U.S.-Russian talks in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, on Feb. 18, Russia's Defense Ministry claims to have shot down a total of 1,879 long-range Ukrainian drones -- an average of more than 53 each day. On four occasions, the ministry reported intercepting more than 100 drones over a 24-hour period.
"Ukraine is pulling every single lever that it can, as hard as it can, to get it the kind of lethal strike capability that it needs for both of those campaigns," Nick Reynolds, a research fellow at the Royal United Services Institute think tank in London, told ABC News.
Three years of Russia's full-scale war have supercharged drone innovation in Ukraine. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Ukraine's armed forces and intelligence services have lauded what they call their "drone sanctions" -- a tongue-in-cheek reference to drone attacks on Russian fossil fuel, military industrial and other infrastructure targets far beyond the front.
"Our Ukrainian production of drones and their continuous modernization are a key part of our system of deterrence against Russia, which is crucial for ensuring Ukraine's security in the long term," Zelenskyy said in a recent Telegram post.
Ukrainian drones have hit targets more than 700 miles inside Russia, have regularly forced the temporary closures of major Russian airports and have bombarded the power centers of Moscow and St. Petersburg. At sea, Ukraine's naval drones have confined Russia's fleet to the eastern portion of the Black Sea and made its bases in Crimea untenable.
It is no longer unusual for more than 100 attack drones to cross into Russian territory in the course of one night. Meanwhile, Kyiv is pushing to replace its relatively low-tech propeller-driven unmanned aerial vehicles, or UAVs, with more jet-powered craft -- potentially extending range, payload and survivability. "The number of rocket drones production will grow just like our long-range strike drones production did," Zelenskyy said last summer.
Kyiv's strikes have particularly disrupted Russia's lucrative oil refining and export industry, prompting concerns abroad -- including in the U.S. -- that the Ukrainian campaign is driving up oil prices globally.
Federico Borsari of the Center for European Policy Analysis think tank told ABC News that Ukraine's evolving long-range strike industry represents a "strategic advantage," especially if Kyiv is able to protect its industrial sites from Russian strikes and stockpile weapons for future use.
"Ukraine has damaged Russian oil refining facilities hard since 2024 and destroyed several key storage bases of the artillery shells," Pavel Luzin, a Russian political analyst at The Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts, told ABC News. "So, the Russians are highly concerned about this."
"The amount of financial loss and material damage is huge," Borsari added.
Drones of all ranges are expected to serve a key role in Ukraine's future deterrence of repeat Russian aggression. Defense Minister Rustem Umerov, for example, said Kyiv is planning a 6- to 9-mile drone "kill zone" to buffer any future post-war frontier with Russia, "making enemy advances impossible."
Ivan Stupak, a former officer in the Security Service of Ukraine, told ABC News that Ukraine's drone threat could also prove an important lever in ongoing negotiations with both Moscow and Washington, neither of which want continued -- or expanded -- drone strikes on Russian oil infrastructure and other sensitive targets.
The weapons could also be vital to future deterrence of repeat Russian aggression, Stupak said, as Ukraine pursues a "hedgehog" strategy by which the country would make itself too "prickly" for Moscow to attempt to swallow again.
Ukraine's success has not gone unnoticed by its foreign partners. Kyiv appears to be carving out a potentially lucrative niche in providing long-range, low-cost strike platforms.
"There is immense interest from our friends around the world in Ukraine's developments, our capabilities and our technological production," Zelenskyy said recently.
Last fall, reports emerged indicating that Ukraine was considering lifting a wartime ban on drone exports, seeking to take advantage of growing demand worth as much as $20 billion annually, per an estimate by Ukrainian lawmaker Oleksandr Marikovskyi.
Ukraine's military and intelligence services collaborate with domestic and international private companies to expand their drone capabilities. Kyiv has estimated there are more than 200 domestic companies working in the sector. This year, Zelenskyy wants Ukraine to produce 30,000 long-range drones and 3,000 ballistic missiles.
This month's brief U.S. aid and intelligence freeze has raised concerns within Ukraine's domestic drone industry, arguably one of the most insulated and resilient areas of the country's defense sector.
"The reality is that Western-provided intelligence -- and the Americans are a big part of that -- does feed into a better targeting picture," Reynolds said. "The efficiency and effectiveness is, in part, tied to that."
"Ukraine became partly blinded as to how and where Russian anti-aircraft and electronic warfare systems are being deployed," Stupak said.
If such a freeze is repeated, "I suppose it will be more difficult for Ukraine to avoid anti-aircraft and electronic warfare systems and maybe we will see decreased levels of successful strikes," he said.
Ukraine's largest drone attack of the war thus far came days after the U.S. announced its intelligence sharing freeze. It is not clear whether Ukraine used previously shared intelligence to carry out the strike, in which scores of craft reached Moscow.
Some targets are easier to find than others. Airfields -- like Engels strategic bomber air base -- oil refineries, ports and the like are static and their locations known to Ukrainian military planners.
Still, a lack of intelligence would make it harder for Kyiv to locate and avoid Russian defensive systems. The pause in American intelligence sharing was brief, but for Ukrainians highlighted their level of reliance on U.S. assistance.
A long-lasting paucity of intelligence would represent "an important vulnerability," Borsari said. "For very long-range targets, they require satellite information, satellite imagery -- and most of the time this information comes from Western allies."
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